Venezuela's economic
crisis hits the poorest sectors, and not shaping political change, except from
within the ranks of Chavez, says expert. After a large-scale blackout to stop
the dark part of the Venezuelan capital, Caracas, as well as 19 of the 23
states of the central and western regions of the country on Tuesday, September
3, President of Venezuela, Nicolas Maduro , chose to blame the "right
unpatriotic" of having committed a "electric shock" to
destabilize the country. "Active Alerts and beat them," said Maduro
in his Twitter account. Electricity Minister Jesse Chacon did not rule out
sabotage.
Klaus Bodemer, political scientist at the Institute for
Global and Regional Studies (GIGA), Hamburg, considers, however, that the
causes of the blackout was due, among other things, the nationalization of
large sectors of the U.S. economy, which has resulted in a lack of investment
and hence a massive deterioration of infrastructure supply services. The
ability to generate electricity is far outweighed by demand, which causes
frequent rationing. The country's infrastructure is also many years in a sorry
state, especially concerning the transport. A crisis that affects all
Government after 14 years of the late Hugo Chavez, oil country records the
highest inflation rate Latin America, about 25 percent, surpassed analysts say
only by that of Argentina, which, according to unofficial data, is 26 percent.
It is estimated that by the end of 2013, inflation in Venezuela could become
one of the highest in the world.
The country is suffering from an economic downturn makes scarce
commodity and is also confronted in a situation of increasing dependency, to
swings in oil prices. "Almost three years ago the government of Venezuela
was forced to import staples at extremely high prices, and that hits harder, of
course, to the poorest sections of the population," says Bodemer. As a
result of the crisis also increased unemployment, and insecurity remains a
serious problem, says expert: "In 2012, Caracas recorded the highest crime
rate in the world". Among other reasons, this is because, according to
him, to a deficient training of law enforcement and the low salaries paid and
corruption within its ranks. To Bodemer, "Venezuelan educational sector
also reflects the ambivalence of government measures. Although conducted
literacy programs, these do not cover the huge deficits that has that area.
Similarly, there has been a leak brain and qualified personnel abroad. “Rich
country, poor country.
One wonders how a country rich in oil as Venezuela goes
through a situation so bleak in regard to infrastructure. Bodemer Klaus
explains: "As always, and as happened during the Chavez government and previous
development depends on a decisive factor, i.e. the income from the sale of
oil." In the medium term, it is expected that lower oil prices, taking
into account international demand, but increase, says Bodemer. But that does
not mean that the oil price does not oscillate down temporarily due to the
situation. "Another problem, more structural in nature, is to Petroleos de
Venezuela SA (PDVSA), which is underfunded for years, in large partly because
oil revenues were not invested in modernizing it, but on social programs for
the poor’s i.e. not invested in the development of the oil industry, and it
became heavily dependent on foreign companies in the form of credits, among
other countries, China ", explains the expert. Maduro will continue the
legacy of Chavez? "The great debt of Chavez's economic success", said
recently the minister of Finance of Venezuela, Nelson Merentes. According to
Klaus Bodemer, that success is not shaping up as plausible medium term:
"For example, the Bolivarian project subsidies for oil supplies are in
place, but Maduro had to cut them." Mature does not have the charisma of
Chavez, adds, and failed to continue the style of the late president. "On
the other hand, his attempt to counteract the impetus given his rival, Capriles,
foreign policy through improving Venezuela's diplomatic relations with other
countries did not work". At Maduro Venezuela become more visible
socio-political problems, of which Hugo Chavez distract knew through his
leadership style, says the analyst.
What direction does Venezuela? "Right now we cannot
speak of a specific address. Rather has lurched, and the model is no longer
articulates Chavez efficiently but rather is in the process of dissolution.
Depends Chavism mature figure. In that sense, I have my doubts about whether
Chavez can survive in the medium term, "says Bodemer. Regarding whether
the result of the municipal elections, to be held in December 2013, could pave
the way for a profound change in Venezuela, Bodemer believes that "while
Capriles has gained ground, does not have much chance of being a threat to
mature". Rather, it could be a change from within the ranks Chavez, if they
decide that Maduro is not the man to continue governing Venezuela. That is, to
be outlined in order of Chavez, that surely will result from the inability to
mature to continue giving support to the model following in the footsteps of
Hugo Chavez.
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